On May 9, 2019, the US government announced that since May 10, 2019, the tariff rate imposed on the $200 billion list of goods imported from China has increased from 10% to 25%. After that, China and the United States conducted several rounds of consultations, but from the results, I am afraid there are major differences. In order to defend the multilateral trading system and defend its legitimate rights and interests, China has to adjust tariffs on some imported goods originating in the United States.
According to the public information, the Chinese side imposed tariffs of 5%, 10%, 15% and 25% on different US commodities. Compared with the past “harmony is more expensive”, China’s measures to impose tariffs can be described as “tit-for-tat”. However, from the list of tariffed goods, it is mainly focused on agricultural products, raw materials, primary industrial products and other intractable commodities. The core technology has a very limited counterattack against the United States.
The counterattack on the chip is relatively limited
According to media reports: since 0:00 on June 1, 2019, the part of the US$60 billion list of US goods that have been imposed with tariffs has been increased, and the tariff rate has been increased by 25%, 20% or 10%. tariff. For tariff items that have previously been subject to a 5% tariff, 5% tariffs will continue to be imposed. China’s adjustment of tariff-adding measures is a response to US unilateralism and trade protectionism. The Chinese side hopes that the US will return to the correct track of bilateral economic and trade consultations and work together with China to move toward each other and strive to reach a mutually beneficial and win-win agreement on the basis of mutual respect.
The iron flow consulted the list of tariff-added goods to the United States. After a cursory look, it seems that no products have been found for the US chip makers. The counter-products are mainly concentrated in agricultural products, raw materials, and primary industrial products. Since the list is too long, the iron flow only intercepts part of the content. The following is a list of 20% tariffs:
It can be said that from the list of tariffs imposed by the Chinese side, it does not directly point to the high-tech industry controlled by the United States and the United States, but instead points to most domestically replaceable agriculture and low-end manufacturing industries. This approach is relatively safe, but it is slightly conservative and cannot hit the United States.
Should be targeted to impose certain tariffs on US chips
It turns out that some public opinion believes that trade friction is not good for China, especially as a chip importing country, and the card neck is not good for the development of various industries in China. But in fact, things have two sides, just as “the misfortunes depend on the blessings, the blessings of the blessings”. From another perspective, it is not necessarily a bad thing to purchase a large number of US chips, because China can take the opportunity to reverse. Counterattack, develop domestic chips, become passive and take the initiative.
At present, many Chinese machine companies need to import a large number of chips to the United States. In terms of CPU, China’s desktop CPU and server CPU are basically monopolized by Intel Corporation of the United States. This aspect allows Intel to extract huge profits from China, and at the same time, it also makes Intel have certain dependence on the Chinese market. In the event of a policy change, Intel will encounter Waterloo in China, and then it will cause a huge shock to Intel’s stock price.
First, it can hit high-tech companies in the United States. As is known to all, after the Second World War, Western countries began to go to industrialization in a big way. On the one hand, blue-collar workers were unemployed in large numbers, and the proportion of service industry in GDP increased. On the other hand, various virtual economies are booming, and a large number of excellent high-skilled businessmen are engaged in games that make money.
Because only the industry can really make blood, in the low-end manufacturing industry has been “lost too much”, high-tech companies represented by Intel, AMD, NVIDIA, TI, Xilinx, ADI, etc., and Loma The military enterprises represented by Boeing, General Motors, and Raytheon are the material basis for supporting US hegemony. Therefore, if tariffs are imposed on chips of companies such as Intel, it will more or less weaken the blood production capacity of high-end manufacturing in the United States and help China to gain more chips in the negotiations.
The second is to contribute to the growth and development of domestic chips. Still taking the CPU as an example, in recent years, the domestic CPU has made great progress in technology, but because Intel has a first-mover advantage in technology, it has done very well in terms of performance, power consumption, cost, etc., resulting in Domestic CPUs are hard to compete with Intel CPUs on the market.
At the same time, the domestic machine factory tends to commercial interests, accustomed to “follow the foreigners to eat soil”, lack of determination and motivation to purchase domestic CPU to replace Intel’s CPU, which makes it difficult for domestic CPUs to obtain support from domestic machine manufacturers.
If the tariff is imposed on Intel CPU, it can make the domestic CPU have better cost performance, and can win “on the starting line” in the market competition. In this way, it is accustomed to accustomed to the domestic machine factory that “follows the foreigners to eat the soil” to purchase domestic CPUs.
It is true that in the short term, the high tariffs on US chips will damage the interests of Chinese machine manufacturers to some extent, but in the long run, they will enable domestic CPU manufacturers and machine manufacturers to achieve a win-win situation.
In short, the tariffs imposed on Intel-represented chip companies can not only hit the high-tech industry that the United States can truly “hematopoietic”, but also gain more bargaining chips for the Chinese side, while at the same time promoting the development of local CPU companies and realizing the replacement of chips. .
Adding tariffs on Intel CPUs, if you can’t do a national chess game, and support domestic CPUs, I am afraid the effect will be greatly reduced.
In practice, it is impossible to develop an industry by simply levying high tariffs on the outside world. After all, if the foundation is too bad and the internal strengths are ruined, even if Moody’s imposes high tariffs, it will not be able to achieve “Made in India.” “The rise of.”
At the same time that national policies create good external conditions, we must also have scientific development ideas to train internal strengths. To develop domestically produced CPUs, we must have a combination of fists. We must have policy support, state funding, and science. The development ideas and development strategies are indispensable.
As far as the top-level design is concerned, in the party and government market, policies have been intensified to guide and rapidly promote the application of domestic chips in the party and government markets, rapidly increase the proportion of applications, and accelerate the formation of alternatives.
In the commercial market, we must pay attention to gradual progress. In the past few years, for the development of domestic CPU, the leadership is very urgent, the experts are very anxious, the media is very anxious, and the people are also very anxious. This impatient mentality takes the power that is hard to accumulate and fights with Intel. It is like land. In the early days of the revolution, the limited revolutionary forces were put into the competition of big cities, which will inevitably lead to painful lessons.
It should start from the application of specific industries and form large-scale applications in some key industries such as petroleum, electric power, transportation, finance, telecommunications, etc. After having its own “revolutionary base”, it will be very sensitive to performance, cost, power consumption and other indicators. Consumer electronics market.
Should seize the opportunity of the times, promote the replacement of localized chips
Judging from several occasions, the previous Huairou policy did not affect the United States. They were still sharp in China. At the same time, they also updated and expanded the list of restricted exports to China, involving many scientific research units, which greatly affected research in some areas. development of.
Therefore, it is recommended that the government can learn from the United States – in diplomacy, you can play Taiji, but in the core technology, you can also take some tough measures, both hard and soft. If you are tempted to fight Taiji and respond with tolerance and ethics, you can only levy tariffs in some non-critical areas.
Today, the United States has given China the best opportunity to impose tariffs. China should seize the opportunity to follow the example of the United States, impose high tariffs on Intel chips, and give US trade back.