Abstract: The current Sino-US trade friction is inevitable, structural and long-term. We must not only think and deal with it strategically but also strategically. No matter how Trump toss, we must always be firm and confident, maintain our strength, carry out overall deployment according to our own rhythm, turn pressure into motivation, turn bad things into good things, insist on doing our own things first, and strive to promote China’s comprehensive National strength has reached a new level.
The development of trade friction between China and the United States to trade wars is of course related to Trump’s personal character and characteristics, but actually has deeper socio-economic roots. Historical materialism believes that the development of anything is a process that is composed of different stages of development. In the long history of capitalist development, capital has experienced a series of changes in commercial capital, industrial capital, financial capital, and virtual capital. Every change has brought capitalism to a new stage. Since the 1970s, especially since the beginning of the 21st century, the capitalist economy has experienced a long-term recession, the profit rate of the industrial sector has been declining, and the capitalist developed countries have launched a wave of “de-industrialization”, and industrial capital continues to develop. With the transfer of China, domestic capital has accelerated to the financial sector, forming a “dual economy” structure of the world’s real economy and financial capital.
Developing countries, especially China, produce large quantities and export a large amount; developed countries, especially the United States, import a large amount and consume a lot. As a highly developed economy, the United States is characterized by financialization and virtualization. Under the wave of “de-industrialization”, the current US manufacturing industry accounts for only about 20% of GDP, while the service industry accounts for 80%. Many low-end and mid-range products are not produced in the United States, and they must rely on imports. The savings rate of American residents is very low. The practice of borrowing money and eating food is very common. Coupled with other reasons (such as the US restrictions on the export of high-tech products), the so-called “trade deficit” has formed. Generally speaking, after industrialization succeeds, it will abandon the low-end manufacturing link and obtain the loss of profits and the security of the country. Instead, it can obtain more global dividends. But the problem is that most of these benefits have been pocketed by a few financial oligarchy, business owners and management. The working people not only did not get much benefit, but also lost some benefits (mainly because the low-end industrial chain was transferred abroad). Unemployment of the people of the country). This has caused some people’s dissatisfaction.
The US dollar is the main settlement currency for international trade in today’s world and the main reserve currency for many countries in the world. “The dollar is our currency, but your problem.” Nixon’s famous minister of finances vividly characterizes the hegemonic nature of the dollar. When China gained a trade surplus through trade in goods, a considerable portion of it purchased US Treasury bonds, which in turn supported US household consumption and government operations. Because of the status of the US dollar as a world currency, US debt has been sought after, and other countries in the world have also bought US Treasury bonds through dollars obtained through trade surpluses. In the currency mechanism of the dollar hegemony, the United States can balance its trade deficit by issuing a “ticket.” Thus, although industrial production in the United States has decreased, social purchasing power and people’s living standards can be maintained. At the same time, the US financial capital has gained a lot of room for development. However, it has caused an increase in the trade deficit on the books and an increase in the fiscal deficit.
After the end of the Cold War, the primary goal of US foreign policy is to absolutely not allow new global powers to challenge US leadership. However, due to the anti-terrorism and financial crisis, the United States was badly hurt, and China became the world’s second largest economy during this period, which caused great panic in the United States. The Obama administration does not accept China’s initiative to establish a “new-type power relationship”, advocates “cannot let countries like China write global rules”, “the United States must lead the world for one hundred years”, and lead the TPP negotiations and promote “return to Asia-Pacific” “Strategy” and other words and deeds are anxious reactions that worry about their hegemonic status. Trump’s strategic vision is to use all means to integrate China into the institutional system that is conducive to the development of the US economy. In particular, it is necessary to cut off China’s use of Western high technology to develop itself and completely prevent China from achieving the “curve overtaking” through scientific and technological progress. Everything possible. Although China is already the second economy in the world, the per capita possession of wealth is not high. It is the realization of basic modernization after one or two decades, and it will not be in the forefront in terms of per capita possession. Therefore, the contradictions and struggles between China and the United States will persist for a long time.
Second, strategically respond to the countermeasures of Sino-US trade disputes
Since the current Sino-US trade friction is inevitable, structural and long-term, we must not only think and deal with it strategically but also strategically. No matter how Trump toss, we must always be firm and confident, maintain our strength, carry out overall deployment according to our own rhythm, turn pressure into motivation, turn bad things into good things, insist on doing our own things first, and strive to promote China’s comprehensive National strength has reached a new level.
China has become a world factory, but it should become a world market. It is our trump card to strengthen and optimize the huge market of more than 1.3 billion people. Why is the United States so cow? It is because he is the largest market in the world. According to the World Bank, China’s private consumption expenditure is four times faster than that of the United States. If the current import growth rate of China and the United States remains unchanged in the next few years, then by 2021 China will surpass the United States to become the world’s largest. import country. The rapid and stable development of China’s domestic market, the stimulating and sustained release of various domestic demand developments will continue to enhance the development momentum of China’s economy and its strong appeal to countries around the world, and will effectively offset the Sino-US trade war. negative impacts.
Opening to the outside world is China’s basic national policy, an important magic weapon for China’s modernization construction to achieve new achievements, and an effective means to deal with Sino-US trade frictions. It is necessary to accelerate the implementation of the established deepening open strategy, promote the expansion and upgrading of the domestic market, and increase the dependence of foreign companies on the Chinese market in order to cope with the pressure of trade protectionism and possible alliances and linkages between Western economies. It is necessary to speed up the process of RMB internationalization and strive to increase the proportion of RMB used in international trade and investment settlement. This will not only provide a reliable guarantee for domestic enterprises to win international competition, but also effectively form an effective constraint on US currency hegemony.
In order to maintain a protracted war in strategy, we must do our best to keep fit. We must first do our own thing well, improve our system and mechanism, promote the modernization of the national governance system and governance capacity, and achieve long-term stability of the party and the country. The fundamental guarantee of the war. We must focus on perfecting the property rights system and the market-oriented allocation of factors, realizing effective incentives for property rights, free flow of factors, flexible price response, fair and orderly competition, and survival of the fittest. It is necessary to deepen the reform of state-owned enterprises and create a group of first-class enterprises with global competitiveness. It is necessary to support the development of private enterprises and stimulate the vitality of various market players. It is necessary to deepen the reform of the financial system, enhance the ability of financial services to the real economy, and promote the healthy development of multi-level capital markets. In short, we must let the vitality of the production elements compete and make the source of social wealth flow in full, and truly realize the historical transformation from high-speed development to high-quality development.
Under the influence of a new round of technological revolution and industrial revolution, the global industrial chain formed in recent decades is undergoing revolutionary changes. On the one hand, with the enhancement of domestic supporting capacity, China’s participation in the global industrial chain division is no longer limited to undertake the construction of industrial transfer of low-level products, but with a more complete industrial ecology and increasingly active innovation drive to the high-end link of the industrial chain. On the other hand, the development and application of emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, industrial Internet, and high-end robots are accelerating the improvement of the intelligent, green, and service-oriented industries, which not only spawned many emerging industrial clusters, but also produced traditions. The possibility of re-laying industries such as textiles, clothing, and machine manufacturing to developed countries. This shows that the comparative advantage of labor cost as the core is weakening on a global scale. “Reverse globalization” and “re-industrialization” are the institutional choices and political attempts made by developed countries to cope with the new round of scientific and technological revolution. The rise of a great power cannot be based on lasting technological dependence, but on independent innovation. We must aim at the forefront of the world’s science and technology, strengthen basic research, focus on applied research, establish a research management system oriented to results management, accelerate the transformation of scientific research results into production applications, and enhance strong scientific and technological support for the construction of modern science and technology systems.
In the modern market economy, general and partial risks are difficult to avoid, but they cannot be transformed into global and systemic risks. The risk in China’s financial sector is concentrated in the aspects of non-performing asset risk, government debt risk, real estate bubble risk, internet financial risk, and external shock risk. The Central Political Bureau meeting called for a stable employment, stable finance, stable foreign trade, stable foreign investment, stable investment, stable expectations, stable macroeconomic growth and financial market stability, prevention and mitigation of major risks, and prevention of subversive mistakes. Ensure the healthy and stable development of our economy. In short, we must turn the pressure generated by this trade war into an opportunity and a driving force for development. Hit a punch and avoid a hundred punches.
The nature of capitalism is to harm others and self-interest. To achieve their own interests by sacrificing the interests of others is to be the first and to give priority to themselves. “After I am dead, even if the flood is heavy.” From the enclosure movement, to the slave trade, to the invasion and expansion of the colonies, it is by sacrificing others to realize their own interests. Now, mainly relying on trade, relying on currency hegemony, relying on rules to satisfy themselves and sacrificing others. The nature has not changed, but the way has changed. We must seriously study this change.
American unilateralism, isolationism, and exitism will be even more embarrassing because he has tasted the sweetness. In an unfair international environment, Islamic extremism and terrorism will not only disappear, but will also intensify. The climate problem and the refugee problem cannot be solved in a short period of time. The rapid development of China has caused panic in the West, and Australia is a good example. Globalization and anti-globalization, unilateralism and multilateralism, developing and developed countries, socialism and capitalism, and various contradictions are intertwined, sometimes acting alone, sometimes working together, and the whole world will be undergoing major changes. In the period of great adjustment, the world will become very uneven. In this regard, we must have sufficient mental preparation.
Mainly China’s successful development path poses a challenge to the traditional development path of the West. China’s rapid rise poses a challenge to the US leadership position, and the internationalization of the renminbi poses a challenge to the US dollar hegemony. Therefore, the containment and containment surrounding the rise of China will be strengthened. The 40 years of reform and opening up have generally been smooth, but the good days are probably over. Journey to the West tells that Tang Yan’s experience of going through the “Ninten 1981” can only be cultivated into a positive result. Our national rejuvenation will not be easy to achieve, and it will be able to achieve many hardships. We must be prepared to carry out many A great struggle for new historical features. I believe that under the current circumstances, we must be more closely united around the Party Central Committee with Xi Jinping as the core, strengthen the “four consciousnesses”, strengthen the “four self-confidences”, and form a situation of unity and unity, and overcome all difficulties. Constantly moving from victory to victory.